Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) Detection (LUCC) leads to agroforestry intervention
Introduction
This was a group project aimed to contribute to the develop a future-proof intervention for Mau Forest complex.
The intervention aimed to balance the interests of local food security, ecological conservation, and downstream water security in the Mara River Basin.
Mau Forest Complex deals with ecological and social-economic challenges. Due to increased population, there have been many changes in land use over the last few decades.
Deforestation and over-cultivation lead to land degradation in the Mau Forest. This land degradation in the Mau Forest has led to lower river discharges in the Mara River during the dry season and lower water quality levels
Land cover map of Mau Forest Complex in 2013
Vegetation Change detection
To determine the vegetation change in the Mau Forest Complex, we used two Landsat 8 satellite images of 2013 and 2020. The timeframe was chosen since there was already literature documenting changes of Mau until 2013.
Using ArcGIS, the two Landsat images were compiled together to create a mosaic image for each year. The band combinations 6, 5 and 4 are used to compare changed areas with the forest areas.
This band combination is often considered suitable to visualize forested/vegetated areas.
Forest Cover comparison of the year 2013 and 2020. Pink shows the vegetated areas that got lost and changed to other land cover classes
Land use/cover classification and Change detection
Subsequently, the same data sets were used to perform image classification in the complete Mau Forest area to assess the land use changes.
Due to the lack of field sample data necessary for performing supervised classification, training samples is created by verifying from google maps.
After creating the training samples, a maximum likelihood supervised classification was performed.
Land use/cover classified images of Mau Forest Complex for years 2013 and 2020
The image classification results showed a deforested region of 690 square kilometers.
Comparison graph land-use based on image classification 2013 to 2020
Even with an uncertainty factor in the classification process, it is possible to conclude that the deforestation problems in the Mau Forest are not solved yet and need urgent attention.
Intervention Selection
Land degradation leads to decreased food and water insecurity, continuing deforestation, and a decrease in biodiversity.
For this reason, the intervention selection in this research is focused on decreasing land degradation in the Mau Forest.
Different interventions were evaluated based on their relation with the different defined pathways of change.
As a result of the assessment, agroforestry was chosen as the focus intervention of this research.
Agroforestry combines the anchoring of soil with crop diversification, reforestation and sustainable agriculture.
Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation
To select an area for the intervention to be implemented, a spatial multi criteria evaluation (SMCE) is executed.
The software used to perform the analysis is ILWIS Open. ILWIS Open is a software package created by ITC consisting of tools for image processing, spatial analysis and digital mapping.
Eight criteria are chosen for the selection of the implementation areas for agroforestry.
From the weight assignments, the composite index maps were created, on which each pixel represents a value between 0 and 1 (1 representing a suitable and 0 a not suitable location).
Composite Index Maps for equal, economic and ecological vision
From these views, a classification table was created to classify the values into five suitability classes. The suitability classification had an upper bound of 0.5 to 1 with 0.5 being not suitable and 1 being highly suitable.
From the data, suitability maps were created for areas equal to or larger than 10 ha, since this is the required area size for the proposed intervention.
Suitability Maps for equal, economic and ecological vision
Agroforestry Design
After selection of the most suitable area, the agroforestry was designed.
Decision making on the type of plants and arrangement was carried out using Agroforestry Design Tool™
The environmental data of the area were used as input to the tool so as to determine the most appropriate type and species to grow in the area.
Based on the tool, after three years, the first significant benefits of agroforestation will appear. Moreover, the tool simulates the trees' height in the ten years.
Agroforestry tool simulation of the medium-term and long-term plants in 3 years
Agroforestry tool simulation of the long-term plants in 10 years
Stakeholders Analysis
The different stakeholder interests are crucial to understanding the situation and possible interventions.
By analysing stakeholder interests it is possible to identify possible conflicts and mutual interests.
Power-interest diagram including the evaluated stakeholder groups in the research
Based on the diagram:
Kenyan forest service and water tower agency are the key players in the Mau Forest Region.
The system problem's main subjects are the subsistence farmers, the downstream actors, and to a certain extent, the commercial farmers.
The context setters that need to be satisfied are the Ministry of agriculture and the Ministry of land planning.
The Community forest agencies(CFA's) can play an essential and powerful role in the mediation process but have a minimal legislative power position.